Because the cement sector is responsible for 7% of global anthropogenic CO2 emissions, lowering the carbon footprint of concrete will be essential for meeting global net-zero targets.
But there is a big problem: technologies for cement decarbonization raise cement production costs and there has historically been little appetite to pay a green premium in the low-margin cement sector. In the IDTechEx report “Decarbonization of Cement 2025-2035: Technologies, Market Forecasts, and Players”, many emerging cement decarbonization technologies such as electrification for kilns/calciners and new cement alternatives are analysed, but the success of these technologies depends on increasing demand for low-carbon cement.
The cement sector is difficult to decarbonize for many reasons. Image source: IDTechEx
Stimulating demand for low carbon cement – Public sector
Governments generally have the biggest role to play in global decarbonization as they strive to reach net-zero targets. A cement-specific approach to government intervention can be taken, with one example being China’s National Development and Reform Commission plan to cap clinker production, improve thermal efficiency, and increase the use of alternative fuels by implementing incentives and giving financial support to cement plants. The European Union instead includes cement decarbonization in regulations covering several industries such as the Emissions Trading System (ETS) and the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM).
Another European Union mechanism is the Innovation Fund, which reinvests money from the ETS. So far, over a US$1 billion has been allocated to cement sector carbon capture projects in Europe from this fund. Many innovative carbon capture approaches will be demonstrated within the cement sector, including oxyfuel combustion and hybrid pressure-swing adsorption with cryogenic distillation. Key technology providers for these projects include Air Liquide, Linde, and Thyssenkrupp.
A powerful tool available to all governments is green public procurement. For infrastructure projects, governments buy massive amounts of cement. Public procurement is estimated to be responsible for a quarter of global construction revenue. At COP28 in December 2023, the governments of Canada, Germany, the United Kingdom and the United States pledged to adopt timebound commitments to procure low-emission steel, cement, and concrete. The United States government has deployed over US$4 billion from the Inflation Reduction Act to procure low-embodied carbon concrete, asphalt, glass, and steel for federal buildings as part of Biden’s Federal Buy Clean Initiative. At a state level, New York has committed to reduce the CO2 emissions from concrete used in the state’s infrastructure projects by 30% by 2028. However, government support for low-carbon cement in the US could see a decrease under the incoming administration.
Stimulating demand for low carbon cement – private sector
In the private sector, businesses are increasingly becoming active in the low-carbon cement space. Securing deals with emerging low-carbon cement players generates positive press and can help future-proof operations.
This is particularly topical for the major data center players. The AI boom has not been without its challenges, and the colossal carbon footprints associated with data centers is a cause for concern. AI has been blamed for Microsoft’s greenhouse gas emissions increasing since 2020, despite the company’s intention to become carbon negative by 2030. Low-carbon cement represents one of many solutions needed to decarbonize data centers. It is therefore unsurprising that in the past two years, Meta announced a partnership with CO2-derived concrete company CarbonBuilt, AWS invested in calcium silicate cement start-up Brimstone, and Microsoft signed a Memorandum of Understanding with electrochemical cement player Sublime Systems.
However, supply chains for low-carbon cement are lacking. There is often a mismatch between where green cement suppliers and end-consumers are located. Moreover, voluntary demand may be on a project-by-project basis and lack consistent volume, making long-term certainty difficult for emerging green cement players.
Taking inspiration from the power sector, there are now efforts to develop a “book and claim” system for low-carbon cement. This chain of custody model allows the positive environmental attributes of low-carbon cement to be purchased, even though the low-carbon cement is physically used elsewhere. Purchasers can therefore address supply chain emissions while low-carbon cement start-ups can simplify logistics by always using its cement locally. The book and claim approach would open up a much larger pool of buyers for low-carbon cement products.
Outlook
Global demand for low-carbon cement is increasing. Government regulation for low-carbon cement production is strongest in the European Union, and the US government has been particularly active in green public procurement. Private sector demand is growing, and the advent of book and claim systems could accelerate this market even further.
To find out more about this report, including downloadable sample pages, please visit www.IDTechEx.com/Cement.
For the full portfolio of decarbonization market research available from IDTechEx, please see www.IDTechEx.com/Research/Energy.
About IDTechEx
IDTechEx provides trusted independent research on emerging technologies and their markets. Since 1999, we have been helping our clients to understand new technologies, their supply chains, market requirements, opportunities and forecasts. For more information, contact research@IDTechEx.com or visit www.IDTechEx.com.
